The labor market is stuck in place — and that’s becoming the real risk
At first glance, the September jobs report looks steady enough: employers added 119,000 jobs, the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.4%, and nothing appears dramatically off-track. But beneath that surface-level stability lies a more complicated truth — the labor market isn’t breaking, but it is stalling, and that stagnation is quickly becoming one of the biggest threats to both employers and job seekers.
While hiring hasn’t collapsed, churn remains exceptionally low. And long-term unemployment continues to hover at troubling levels: 1.8 million people have now been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. While this number is slightly below a high recorded in August 2025, nearly one quarter of all unemployed workers have been job searching for over six months.
These numbers reflect what hiring leaders — and Bullhorn data — have been signaling for months. Decision cycles are slowing. And even when employers need talent, they’re hesitating, caught between an unpredictable economy, global policy shifts, and fundamental questions about what work looks like in the age of AI.
The squeeze on small businesses and new talent
Bullhorn’s latest Job Market Trends data reveals a shift that’s subtle but meaningful: mid-sized and large companies (200+ employees) now hold a measurably larger share of job openings than they did last year. In fact, mid-sized employers (200–599 employees) represent 16% more of total openings compared to October 2023.
Meanwhile, smaller companies — those with fewer than 200 employees — have seen their share of job openings decline. This matters because when small businesses pull back, the effects ripple through the broader labor market, potentially spreading to mid-sized and even enterprise employers.
Small businesses aren’t the only ones feeling the pressure of the stagnant labor market. Roles requiring a bachelor’s degree and one year or less of experience are down 6% year over year, according to Bullhorn data. For recent graduates already navigating a tough hiring climate, that’s one more obstacle in the path toward meaningful career momentum.
A market that feels “stable” — but isn’t moving
The biggest challenge in today’s labor market isn’t volatility — it’s inertia. Instead of major swings, we’re seeing a slow-throttle environment where:
- Job openings fluctuate month-to-month, but the longer-term trajectory is flat, according to Bullhorn research.
- Transportation and warehousing swing sharply with tariff cycles, suggesting unstable demand patterns.
- Candidate pools deepen, but opportunities stagnate.
The SIA | Bullhorn Staffing Indicator reinforces the point: staffing hours have been remarkably flat for a full year, even as industries experience small peaks and dips.
Flat lines feel safe, but they can also mask drift. This is the quiet risk — a labor market that appears steady but leaves talent stuck in place, which is proven by the decreasing quit rates reported in the latest JOLTS report.
What staffing leaders should prioritize now
A flat labor market demands focus and decisive action. Here’s how leaders can position their firms to win:
- Tighten operations. Streamline workflows, audit tech stacks, and eliminate friction to convert more requisitions faster — even as clients hesitate.
- Scale communication with automation. Keep candidates informed and engaged while protecting recruiter bandwidth. Clear, consistent updates build loyalty and recurring revenue.
- Be a trusted advisor to clients. Provide insights on hiring trends, role design, and AI adoption. Firms that advise earn preference in uncertain markets.
- Invest in early career pipelines. Nurture recent grads and upskill talent now to secure the workforce you’ll need when hiring accelerates.
- Lean on data. Use industry-specific research like Bullhorn Insights to guide your team and clients, set realistic expectations, and make confident decisions.
The bottom line
Recruiters who combine responsiveness with empathy, automation with insight, and data with human connection will be the ones who unlock movement in a market that feels stuck. They’ll give candidates momentum when the market won’t. And they’ll guide employers through uncertainty with confidence rooted in clarity.
