Hiring momentum moderates in July but remains ahead of last year
Despite a month-over-month slowdown from June to July, our data shows the staffing industry continues to outperform, with year-over-year growth remaining strong. Temporary job orders were up 5% over last year, and fill rates up 8%.
The month-over-month slowdown is worth watching, but it looks more like a cooling of momentum than a reversal. What’s changing is how much effort recruiters are putting in to move jobs through the pipeline.
Permanent job orders remain above 2025 levels
While permanent job orders dipped 1% in July compared to June, they remained 4% above July 2025 levels, showing that demand for permanent hiring is still stronger than it was a year ago.
The bigger shift is in the pace of growth. After gaining momentum earlier this year, permanent job orders declined 1% in July following June’s rebound. That doesn’t necessarily point to a downturn, but it could suggest the rapid growth seen earlier in 2026 may be starting to soften.
The same pattern appears in permanent fill rates. Fill rates fell 5% from June, meaning a smaller share of permanent job orders were filled within 90 days. However, they remained 8% above July 2025 levels. In other words, permanent hiring has slowed from its recent pace, but it is still performing better than it was a year ago.
What July’s recruiter effort really signals
Recruiter effort is the clearest signal of change this month. Job orders were flat or down in July, while fill rates remained above last year’s levels. At the same time, recruiters had to put in more effort to keep jobs moving through the pipeline.
For temporary roles, submissions per job order increased 3.5% in July. That means recruiters made more submissions for each job order than they did the month before, even though temporary job orders were essentially flat.
That doesn’t mean the market is suddenly becoming difficult to navigate. Temporary fill rates are still 8% above 2025 levels, and permanent fill rates are also 8% higher than last year. But the combination of strong fill rates and rising effort is worth watching: staffing firms are still getting jobs filled, but it may be taking more work to get there.
Reading the shift from June to July
June brought a rebound in job orders, but July was more subdued. Temporary orders were essentially flat, permanent orders declined 1%, and fill rates softened for permanent roles. Recruiters also had to put in more effort to keep hiring moving.
The data suggests the rapid momentum seen earlier in 2026 may be starting to ease, rather than the market entering a downturn. Year-over-year comparisons remain positive, with both temporary and permanent job orders and fill rates above 2025 levels. The question is whether July’s higher recruiter effort is a one-month fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term trend.
Check back with Bullhorn Insights at the start of every month for the latest hiring outlook and the insights you need to stay ahead of the market.
